- Ways To Bet On Football With Friends
- See Full List On Gamblingsites.org
- What Are The Different Types Of Football Bets You Can Place
- Best Ways To Bet On Football
- Place A Bet On Football
NFL Betting Systems: The Definitive Guide to the Top Strategies
How big is the football betting market?
Point Spreads – Unlike most sports on which money lines are the most popular way to bet, point spread bets are king in football. Both sides are generally set at -110 (Bet $110 to win $100), and bettors can bet the favorite while surrendering points (such as -4.0) or the underdog while receiving points (such as +4.0). When you are betting on the NFL season you will want to set aside a certain amount of money to bet with that you can afford to lose, known as your “bankroll”. I suggest you either make a weekly bankroll, monthly bankroll, or full season bankroll (I do full season). Apr 12, 2017 Total points or Over/Under. This category affords you the opportunity to bet on the amount of points scored in a game. Example: The Carolina-Atlanta game has an over-under or total of 47 points. You can bet whether the total points scored by both teams will go “over” 47 points or stay “under” that total. Betting Football Point Spreads There are several different types of football wager you can place, and two of them are significantly more popular than the others. The most popular of all is the point spread wager, followed by the totals wager. In this article, we’re focusing on the point spread. Two-way moneyline bets Also referred to as a ‘draw, no bet,’ in this type of football bet, you back a certain team to win the game. The winner is decided based on the score line after 90 minutes of.
Forget baseball.
America’s favorite pastime is football.
The proof is in the pudding. And the Vegas sportsbooks. Football is by far the most bet on sport in the United States. To be specific, the Super Bowl.
This past year alone, the American Gaming Association estimated bettors to have wagered upwards of $4.7 billion dollars on the nation’s most-watched sporting event.
Despite an ongoing federal ban on sports betting outside Nevada (and sparingly in certain other states), the majority of that money comes from illegal bets placed outside of the Sagebrush State.
That’s right.
Only $132M of that $4.7B is considered legal.
And yet, betting for the sport continues to increase with each passing year. According to Jimmy Vaccaro, a prominent Las Vegas bookmaker, Americans wager upwards of $50 billion a year on NFL and college football combined.
That being said, the majority of bettors fail to turn a profit.
According to Dan Gordon, a top football handicapper and author of Beat the Sports Books(Cardoza Publishing 2005), throughout an entire NFL season, “fewer than one bettor in twelve turns a profit. Over the course of several seasons, the percentage of bettors who turn a profit is minuscule.”
Why do most NFL betting systems fail?
Well a standard bet requires bettors to wage $11 for every $10 they want to win. The extra $1 is called the juice.
Were it not for the juice, things might be different.
The average bettor might have a chance at real success. But as it stands, the odds and the money favor the bookmakers. A sports bettor has to select 52.4 percent winners simply to break even. But each year, the average Joe wins only 50 percent of the bets they make.
Treat NFL betting for what it is — a sophisticated network of constantly changing data points pouring through equally sophisticated predictive algorithms —
So it’s an uphill battle for most bettors dipping their toes in the waters of sports gambling.
The trick is to take things seriously.
Treat betting for what it is — a sophisticated network of constantly changing data points pouring through equally sophisticated predictive algorithms — and you might just have a chance at going from square to sharp.
But don’t be overwhelmed.
If you’re reading this, chances are you’re a serious bettor looking to make some well-informed decisions to take your football betting to another level.
Before we get into the fundamentals of NFL betting, let’s first take a look at the basics of our very own predictive wager system.
Our Betting Methodology and System
The Simulator is built based on a predictive model created by a doctor with an extensive background in mathematics, psychology, and operations research.
This individual has worked with multiple professional and collegiate sports organizations, player agents, sports data agencies and a top-ranked fantasy website. His work with professional sports organizations includes optimizing scout travel, in-depth player analysis and lineup configurations.
Correctly predict the winning team 74.33 percent of the time (on average) as compared to the experts who were correct 68.67 percent of the time
Among his greatest innovations was the discovery of neural networks as a powerful tool for sports betting.
A neural network is defined as a computer system modeled on the human brain and nervous system.
Using this technology, the good doctor found that, “the best networks were able to correctly predict the winning team 74.33 percent of the time (on average) as compared to the experts who were correct 68.67 percent of the time.”
While the model was initially developed around NBA betting, it has since been applied to other sports — chief among them, the NFL.
What makes the Sports Analytics Simulator unique is that it relies not on data inputs (statistics) from previous seasons, but on continuous game-to-game updates.
The Simulator’s specific algorithms run through up to forty different stat categories to create the most efficient model possible.
From this model, we derive our picks for each game. And the best part is, our system is a living, breathing predictive model — it possesses machine learning capacities that allow to detect trends and potentials that we mere humans could only dream of finding.
For more information, check out this handy dandy video on how it works.
NFL Betting Systems
Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, let’s talk about the fundamentals of NFL Betting. Essentially there are six different ways to bet on the NFL. Let’s run through them shall we?
NFL Spread Bet
The first and most popular form of NFL betting is spread-based. Which is pretty straightforward.
Bookmakers set a spread with a favorite and an underdog. In order for you to win on a bet of this nature, one team must cover the spread — so if the spread is -7 in favor of the Chiefs over the Steelers, the Chiefs must win by seven points or more.
Whereas in order for the Steelers to cover the spread, they must either lose by less than seven points, or win. To make it simpler, the spread gives the underdog a ‘head start’.
In this case, the Steelers have a +7 head start in points to kick off the game. Pretty straightforward stuff.
Now, if you simply want to bet on the winner of the game you’ll want to place a…
Moneyline Bet
Moneyline betting is an equally common form of sports betting as spread bets. The difference is that with moneylines, bookmakers will set lines representing the favorite and the underdog.
Let’s go back to this Chiefs-Steelers matchup.
Let’s say the Chiefs have a favored line of -150 and the Steelers have an underdog line of +125.
What this means is that in order to win a hundred dollars on the Chiefs, you must wage $150.
As for the underdogs, if you wage $100 you will win $125. So that’s that.
NFL Totals Bet
NFL totals betting is rather self-exploratory. Also known as over/under, this form of betting involves placing a wager on the total number of points scored by both teams combined in a game.
Let’s say bookmakers set an over/under of 55 points for the Chiefs and Steelers.
Your job as a bettor is to decide whether the score will be… over or under 55 points.
NFL Prop Bet
A prop bet is a special kind of bet that has nothing to do with the outcome or final score of a game.
Prop bets come in many different forms.
Some of them are player-based — how many yards or touchdowns a specific player scores. Some of them are based in live betting, i.e. if a team scores on a specific drive.
During the Super Bowl you’ll see all sorts of fun prop bets like coin toss wagers.
NFL Parlay Bet
You might have seen a parlay bet featured in the film, Silver Linings Playbook, (or read it in the book), wherein Pat Solitano’s father, Patrizio Sr., places a bet on the Eagles-Cowboys game and the judge outcome of Pat and Tiffany’s dance number in a local dance-off.
In order for Patrizio to win the bet, the Eagles must win their game against Dallas and Tiffany and Pat score 5 out of 10 in their dance competition.
This is what’s known as a parlay bet, wherein various games and outcomes are rubber-banded together into one single bet.
In order for the bettor to win the wager, all outcomes must unfold accordingly. This might involve a handful of other bets such as a totals bet and a moneyline bet.
In the NFL, this is a common form of betting to get more bang for your buck.
NFL Teaser Bet
A teaser bet is a form of parlay that involves a combination of two to ten NFL wagers in which you adjust the point spreads and/or totals in your favor in exchange for a lower payout.
When your teaser includes a point spread, you have the option to decrease the spread for the favorite or increase the spread for the underdog.
When you’re teasing a total, you can increase the under or decrease the over.
Like a parlay, winning the bet is dependent on all of the wagers winning.
Standard teasers are 6, 6.5 and 7-point. There’s also a sweetheart teaser, which offers you the choice to tease a line by 10 or 13 points.
It’s basically a parlay with a little bit of zazz.
The Most Important NFL Betting Stats
Now, knowing the forms of NFL betting is great but without the statistics to back up your wager, you’re S.O.L.
So what are the most important stats for successfully determining winners in an NFL game?
Well, it might not be what you think.
According to a prominent Vegas oddsmaker, one of the most integral statistics for betting the NFL is… duh duh duh dahhh… pass yards per attempt.
Teams that are successful and efficient in their passing game tend to carry the edge over their less successful opponents
In a passer’s league this makes a lot of sense.
Teams that are successful and efficient in their passing game tend to carry the edge over their less successful opponents. Taking this little known or acknowledged stat into account in your handicapping will no doubt help you find success in your waging.
The other big stat to consider in placing your bets is turnovers.
Seems pretty simple.
The team who averages more turnovers per game is likely to give up more scoring opportunities and thus the whole game.
As we’ve said, the Sports Analytics Simulator utilizes up-to-date, real time game-to-game statistics to establish the most accurate predictions week in and week out. So it goes without saying that our model analyzes far more than just turnovers and passing yards per attempt.
Nonetheless, betting in any case involves a level of intuition. Therefore, even if you subscribe to the Simulator, it would behoove you to do your own research. Check out important stats. Take your time with each pick. Choose wisely based on time-tested methods and patterns.
Factors for NFL picks?
Aside from the aforementioned factors, you’ve got to consider other dynamics. For instance, what is the most pivotal quality of any team in the NFL?
I’ll give you a hint. It’s not a good quarterback. Teams with good quarterbacks flounder all the time in the NFL.
If an O-Line is good, the quarterback and running back will look good too. And you better bet your bottom dollar that an NFL team with a solid O-Line is far more likely to go the distance than a team with big holes and weaknesses in their front five
What really matters is the team’s offensive line.
Think the 2016-17 Dallas Cowboys. Sure, they failed to win a Super Bowl with a rookie quarterback and running back. But the majority of their success last season was owed directly to the strength of their offensive line.
If an O-Line is good, the quarterback and running back will look good too. And you better bet your bottom dollar that an NFL team with a solid O-Line is far more likely to go the distance than a team with big holes and weaknesses in their front five.
In order to successfully bet the NFL, you’ve got to consider these more understated and under-appreciated factors — such as a strong O-Line.
You’ve got to take it game by game and know that in this league, fortunes shift in an instant. There’s no perfect formula for effective betting.
But that doesn’t mean there aren’t resources and numbers at your disposal to help you get the edge on oddsmakers.
With that said, let’s explore some of the biggest mistakes that squares (amateur bettors) often make when betting on the NFL.
Biggest mistakes with NFL betting
Money Management
The biggest mistake is money management.
If you have a $1,000 bankroll for the season, you should generally bet no more than $50 a game.
This seems pretty obvious but you’d be surprised (or maybe not) at the trouble amateur bettors have with this one.
It’s simple.
Don’t bet what you can’t afford to lose.
That means knowing what your bankroll is for a given season and being disciplined with your money. “Most people with an understanding of football gambling bet between 3 percent and 5 percent of their bankroll, increasing when they win and reducing when they lose,” says Jimmy Vaccaro. “If you have a $1,000 bankroll for the season, you should generally bet no more than $50 a game.”
Shop the Numbers
Ways To Bet On Football With Friends
Another big mistake amateurs make is that they don’t account for a variety of numbers.
No sportsbook is exactly the same as another.
Lines, differentials, totals, spreads will all look different depending on where you look. In the NFL, you might not think that .5 points is a significant. But you’d be wrong. So shop the numbers.
Don’t say yes to the first line you see.
Shopping the numbers will give you a better idea of potential outcomes and allow you to make a well-rounded decision on your bets.
What else? Well, let’s start with something basic.
Bet the Underdog at Home
There is probably no better bet in sports than playing an underdog at home
You might think betting on the favorite is the obvious option every time but you’d be wrong. “There is probably no better bet in sports than playing an underdog at home,” says Morey “Doc” Moseman, a professional gambler and sports consultant with DocSports.com for nearly 40 years. “Teams play inspired ball at home.
Slim underdogs regularly win outright.
Big underdogs often find ways to cover the spread and they rarely give up toward the end of a game in front of the home crowd.”
To revisit a favorite example, the Chiefs tend to claim the edge in the majority of their home games, no matter their status on the betting lines.
Why?
Because there’s magic at Arrowhead.
There’s more to lose when you’re playing before 150,000 of your fans’ scrutinizing eyeballs.
Here’s a list of some of the other worst betting mistakes you can make:
- Chasing your bets
- Getting vindictive
- Trying to win back losses
- Go after big wins to recoup losses
- Overly-promising wagers.
It’s like a night of heavy drinking. It might sound tempting beforehand. But the next day you’re likely to have some regret.
Remember that betting is a mathematician’s game.
There’s no large place for emotion in this game.
When it comes to the NFL, upon which more bets are placed than any other sport in America, that goes double. The oddsmakers have one job — and that’s to know their shit.
The key to beating them is knowing yours too.
One of the coolest things about the Super Bowl is that it’s the number one sporting event for attracting new and first-time sports bettors. If you’re here, the chances are high that this is probably the first time you’ve ever bet on sports, which is awesome! But with that awesomeness comes a lot of questions. Sports betting odds payout calculator.
How do you bet on the Super Bowl? Where can I bet on the Super Bowl? How do I make sure I don’t make any beginner mistakes? In this guide, we’re going to address and answer all of those questions and more. In a matter of minutes, you’ll have all the tools, knowledge, and resources you need to know how to bet on the Super Bowl in 2021.
Where to Bet on Super Bowl 55 Right Now
Betting Site | Bonus | Bet Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | up to €30 Free Bet | Go to Site | |
| 2 | 22Bet | 100% up to €122 | Go to Site |
| 3 | 100% up to €200 | Go to Site | |
| 4 | 10Bet | 100% up to €50 | Go to Site |
| 5 | 100% up to €50 | Go to Site |
5 Options for Real Money Betting on Super Bowl 55
Online Super Bowl Betting Apps
The easiest and most popular way to bet on the Super Bowl is a perfect marriage between sports and technology. Thanks to innovation and tech growth, you’re now able to bet on the big game without ever needing to leave your home, office, or lazy boy. We’re talking about online Super Bowl betting apps! If you want to get into the action fast, but in a safe and reputable manner, check out one of the sports betting sites we’ve listed at the top of this guide.
- Most convenient and efficient way to place Super Bowl bets
- Bonuses and VIP rewards available for players of all levels
- Safe, secure, and no risk of someone else messing up your bet
- Might feel different if you’re used to betting in person
- Lots of betting app options to choose from (may feel overwhelming)
Our Favorite Option:
Our two favorite picks for the best Super Bowl betting sites online are MyBookie and BetUS. Click in the links below so you can check out these betting apps.
In-Person Sportsbooks
The most well-known option for how to bet on the Super Bowl is brick and mortar sportsbooks. This might be a sportsbook attached to a casino or a stand-alone bookmaker. Either way, these in-person establishments allow you to join other patrons and make wagers face to face.
- The sportsbook atmosphere around Super Bowl time can be exciting
- You can get free drinks
- You can talk to someone face to face if you have questions
- Lines are especially long around Super Bowl time
- Betting odds can change against you while you’re waiting in line
- Bonuses and rewards are limited, especially for smaller bettors
- Higher probability of human error
Our Favorite Option:
It all depends on where you live, and if you have a brick and mortar sportsbook close by. Check our US sportsbooks page to find out more about how to gamble in your state.
Wagering With Family and Friends
Want to liven up the game with a little competitive fun with friends and family? Well, if you want to, you can always choose to make bets right at home. What’s great about wagering with friends and family is that you don’t have to bet money. You can bet chores, the next meal, or even a round of drinks.
Be careful, though. If you do bet money and it’s enough to sting when someone loses, you may risk souring relationships. If that’s a concern, stick to one of the other ways to bet on the Super Bowl from this list.
- You don’t pay any rake on wagers
- It can add some fun competition to the game
- You don’t have to bet money if you don’t want to
- Could cause relationship issues
- Winning means taking money from friends and family (not the sportsbook)
- No system for arbitration if there are arguments
Our Favorite Super Bowl Bets With Friends:
- Bet on the game-winner
- Bet on whether or not the total final score will be odd or even
- Bet on whether or not the first score will be a touchdown or something else
Private Bookies
If you’ve ever watched a classic mobster movie, then you know what a bookie is. It’s someone who basically “runs their own sportsbook” or collects money for someone else running their own sportsbook. These private bookies are almost always doing something illegal. In the early days of sports betting, we understood why people would take the risks to use these people,
However, with so many great Super Bowl betting apps and other simple options, there’s no need to take on this unnecessary risk anymore. We only included the option here for completeness.
- We don’t condone the use of private bookies due to the lack of pros and benefits associated with the practice.
- It’s illegal in most jurisdictions
- You have no way to protect yourself from theft
- The ability to bet on margin can get you in a lot of trouble
Our Favorite Option:
None, unless you like having your legs broken. Seriously, there are zero good reasons you should be using a private bookie when you have so many reputable online Super Bowl betting site options.
Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS)
A slightly different way to bet on sports that has grown in popularity over the past few years is daily fantasy sports (DFS). DFS is a lot like the season-long fantasy sports you’re used to (where you get points for players doing well), but it condenses the leagues down into a single day or even a single game competition. If you want to mix things up for this year’s Super Bowl, DFS might be something worth checking out.
- Good opportunities to turn a small buy-in into a large win
- Access to a large pool of other sports bettors to compete against
- Different than traditional sports betting
- Large player pools make it tougher to win
- Requires more understanding and learning than traditional betting
- Not available in many states in the U.S.
Our Favorite Option:
The best option currently for daily fantasy sports is DraftKings. And remember you can learn all about DFS in our complete Daily Fantasy Sports betting guide, link below.
Step by Step Guide for How to Bet On The Super Bowl Right Now
1. Decide What Type of Super Bowl Bet You Want To Make.
Pick out the type of wager you want to make. If this is your very first bet, we recommend choosing either a moneyline bet, a spread bet, or an over/under bet.
- Moneyline bet – All you have to do is pick the team that wins the Super Bowl.
- Spread bet – Pick the team that is going to outperform their expectations. The team you bet on doesn’t necessarily have to win the game for you to win your bet. For example, if a team is +3, they are expected to lose the game by 3 points. As long as they lose the game by 2 points or fewer (or win the game), they’ve outperformed the spread and you win.
- Over/Under bet – This is a wager on the total number of points scored by both teams. The Super Bowl betting site sets a line of how many points it believes will be scored cumulatively.
- If you choose the over and more points than that line are scored, you win.
- Choose the under and fewer points than that line are scored, you win.
It never matters who wins the game or what team scores the points. The only thing that matters is when you add both scores together at the end of the Super Bowl.
2. Decide How Much Want To Make Your Wager.
Online Super Bowl betting websites let you wager as little as a few dollars, whereas in-person options might have slightly higher minimums. If you’re brand new, it’s okay to bet small to get your feet wet.
Remember, if you need any help to determine your bet sizes, you can check our sports betting bankroll management page.
3. If You Choose To Bet Online, Open up Your Free Player’s Account.
Click one of the links we’ve provided at the top of the page to head on over to the Super Bowl betting site of your choice. Any of the options we’ve recommended will give you a great experience.
4. Make a Real Money Deposit.
Once you create your account through the ‘Sign Up’ or ‘Join Now’ button, head over to the cashier and make a real money deposit. You’ll have plenty of different options to choose from.
5. Navigate To the Super Bowl Bets.
After your account is funded, head over to the Super Bowl bets page. You may see a direct link or you may need to click on Sportsbook > Football > NFL > Super Bowl (or a similar combination on the menus) to get there.
6. Find the Wager You Want To Make and Add It To Your Virtual Betting Slip.
Pick out the bet you decided on in step one and click to add it to your virtual betting slip.
7. Enter How Much Money You Want To Bet.
Enter the amount of money you want to bet on your virtual betting slip.
8. Confirm That Everything Looks Correct.
Make sure that everything looks correct. The things to check include:
- You chose the right side of the bet.
- The amount you want to bet is correct.
- The amount you are getting paid if you win is correct.
- You chose the right game. Generally, this is tough to mess up with the Super Bowl, but it’s worth noting.
9. Place Your Bet, and Reconfirm Everything Looks Correct on Your Betting Slip.
Click the ‘Place Bet’ button. You’re in! Immediately double check your betting slip one more time to make sure it’s correct. If you find an issue, don’t leave the betting counter (in-person) or contact support immediately (online).
10. Enjoy the Game!
Sit back and see if you made a smart Super Bowl prediction.
4 Tips for Making Your First Super Bowl Bet
- Keep it simple – You’re new to all of this. There’s no reason to overcomplicate things. Stick to simple bets. And guess what? There is zero correlation between the complexity of your bets and the amount of money you can win. Many of the most successful NFL bettors make tons of money every year with the simplest of wagers.
- Start small – If this is your first time making real money sports bets, start small. Sports betting is going to be around for a long time, and the next NFL season is only a few months away after the Super Bowl.
- Remember why you’re betting – If you’re betting for fun, don’t get wrapped up in the results. If you’re betting to make money, make sure you stick to profitable strategies. We’ve seen a lot of people serious about making money wagering on things during the Super Bowl like the coin flip or what color shirt the halftime act is going to wear.There’s nothing wrong with betting for fun or to make money—just remember what side of the aisle you’re on.
- Always check your work – You’ll see us mention this several times throughout our guide on how to bet on the Super Bowl and for good reason. No matter where or how you bet, you need to check your betting slip immediately after you bet. If you bet in person, there’s a chance the agent made a mistake. If you bet online, there’s always a small chance you made a mistake. If you catch it right away and let someone know, the chances are good that you can get things corrected.
Common Beginner Super Bowl Betting Mistakes
Bets That Don’t Work in Unison
See Full List On Gamblingsites.org
If you decide to make multiple bets, make sure they work in unison. All of your Super Bowl bets should fit the same storyline of what you expect to happen in the game. For example, if you bet:
- Team A to win the game
- Team B to score first
- The team to score first wins the game
As you can see, you have contradictory bets here. If Team B scores first, you’re already behind on your bet for Team A to win (which may be okay in some circumstances). However, your bet that the team that scores first wins the game can’t win with the other two bets. If Team B scores first and wins the game, you win the last two bets but lose the first one. If Team B scores first and loses the game, you win the first two bets but lose the last one.
Forgetting to Check Your Tickets
We’ve mentioned it several times, and we’re going to mention it again. Make sure you check your betting ticket before you bet and after. If you see something, say something. Mistakes can be corrected right away, but you’ll never convince anyone you meant to do something different later.
Making Wagers You Don’t Understand
There’s an unhealthy perception in the betting community amongst some uninformed people that more complex Super Bowl bets give you a better chance of winning. It’s simply not true. If anything, it lowers your chances of winning because you run the risk of making a mistake. Stick to wagers you completely understand.
Super Bowl Betting FAQ
Yes, but which Super Bowl bonus depends on what your plans are after the big game. If you are planning on keeping your account open and betting on more games, you can use any bonus you want. The reason this is important is that bonus dollars come with a playthrough requirement. This means you have to wager the funds a certain number of times before you can cash them out. If you are only planning on betting on the Super Bowl and cashing out right away, this can create issues.If you are only planning on betting on the Super Bowl and cashing everything out right away, there is still a bonus you can use! The 10% up to $200 bonus from MyBookie comes with a 1x rollover requirement. That means that after you bet the bonus dollars one time, they are yours to cash out immediately!
What Are The Different Types Of Football Bets You Can Place
Our two favorite picks for the best Super Bowl bonuses you can claim right now are:Best Ways To Bet On Football
- 10% up to $200 from MyBookie with a 1x rollover requirement
- 125% up to $3,125 from BetUS with a 10x rollover requirement